New Ways To Trade China, Crude Oil & The Fed Decision
You’re reading the news about China and oil. The Fed will be talking about that news and much more and making news of its own. Some traders will find ways to profit. But will you trade the news you read? Or does the cost and risk keep you on the sidelines?
By Vikram Rangala
Wednesday, January 27, 2016
George Soros got a shout-out Tuesday from no less than China’s People’s Daily,considered the official paper of China’s Communist Party. China sent a rare personal warning to the man who once “broke the Bank of England” by shorting the pound and making a billion in a day, not to try short-selling the yuan. The opinion piece by a commerce ministry researcher was quite specific: “Soros's war on the renminbi and the Hong Kong dollar cannot possibly succeed…”
You may agree or disagree with what Soros said in Davos about a hard landing for the yuan and Chinese stocks. You may have an opinion about where Chinese stocks are headed next. But does that mean you can turn that opinion into a trade? You might speculate on how China’s problems might affect your Apple stock. You might even try a China-based ETF, but you’d still be dependent on the skill of the fund’s manager and other factors. How to directly trade the price of a Chinese stock index yourself?
Oil is another fun topic to have opinions about. I’ve heard guys talk for 10 minutes about which gas station has the cheapest price that week. Even Bloomberg Businessweek did some of that, reporting that gas is now cheaper in Houston than in Dubai for the first time since 2008.
Dennis Gartman, whose “Gartman Letter” many read and some even agree with, recently said oil would not go above $44 a barrel “in his lifetime.” Mr. Gartman is in great health, so this is a long-term forecast. Some of you almost certainly disagree.
Last year I made a cocky prediction on oil when it was around $70 a barrel, that it would be under $45 by August. The cocky part was that I made it to a friend who worked for Koch Industries and knew petroleum up close and personal. When I was proven right, I gloated for a few minutes, but not much. Because I didn’t trade that prediction. I’ve traded for 18 years, but I took a pass on crude even when I was confident. Trading crude futures or even options was more risk than I wanted to take on just then.
FOMC meeting week is usually a time for wide-ranging discussions. While the Fed is talking, so is everyone else, it seems. And when the Fed is done, they often move many markets and the US and other economies with their opinions. Stock markets will have short-term reactions and counter-reactions. Currencies may fluctuate and so can commodities, which are priced in dollars. Traders on all these markets stand to profit.
Soros has an opinion, Gartman has an opinion, the FOMC has a dozen opinions. The rest of us have valid opinions of our own, but few ways to turn those opinions into opportunities to profit. Too much capital required or too much risk involved.
The Nadex binary options exchange offers a secure, CFTC-regulated, affordable new way to trade not just crude oil, but even more exotic (to US traders) markets like the China A50 stock index of China’s 50 biggest companies. Exchange-traded binary options from Nadex offer guaranteed limited risk, low fees, and thousands of contracts traded daily with great liquidity thanks to the exploding growth in the popularity.
Last year, a special report in Bloomberg Businessweek called Nadex binary options “The Future of Trading” because they address the problems of cost and risk. You can start with a minimum balance of just $100, the fees are 90 cents a side or less, and you always know your maximum possible loss before you enter the trade. No worrying about stop-losses or unlimited risk.
That means you, too, can trade your opinions on China’s markets. You probably won’t get called out by the People’s Daily, either. And next time you’re talking gas prices, you could pull up the Nadex app on your phone and trade crude oil for less than $100 of risk.
And of course, you can trade the most popular global stock indexes, commodities, and forex pairs—all from one screen and one account. Nadex even has binaries on Bitcoin (without having to own bitcoins).
And if you have an opinion on whether the Fed will raise rates this week or not, Nadex has a binary option for that. Regulated by the CFTC, with your money held in US banks, Nadex offers an innovative new way for the rest of us to find profit opportunities in all parts of the world’s markets (well, except cannabis).
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