Trading the Upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change

Trading the Upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change

On Friday, June 2nd, the Non-Farm Employment Change will be released at 8:30 am New York time. This report creates extreme volatility especially in Gold futures. For example, the March Non-Farm Employment Change created a 77 tick move in Gold between 8:30 am to 8:45 am (measured from high to low). In April, the move was 85 ticks and in May it was 54 ticks (again measuring the 8:30 am to 8:45 am bar from high to low).

Trading the Upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change
Trading the Upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change Getty Images

Trading the Upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change

Since Gold has such a drastic move after this report, it is an ideal candidate for trading both spreads and binary options with limited risk.  The charts below indicate that Gold is currently trending upwards on the 180 minute chart, 720 minute chart, and the daily chart.

Trading the Upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change

A couple of different scenarios to watch for are:

  • Price retraces to the Average True Range Stop (ATR), blue cross, on the 180 minute chart and hidden divergence forms prior to the release indicating that the high at 1270 will be exceeded; or
  • Since the daily Stochastics is indicating that the market is currently overbought, price could break through the ATR on the 180 minute chart and continues down to the ATR on the 720 minute chart and quite possibly to the daily ATR.

The key will be to watch the 180 minute chart clues as to whether support will hold and price can resume the uptrend or, if support fails, then a stronger retracement, likely to the 720 minute ATR would be anticipated.

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