USDJPY Oversold Conditions

USDJPY Oversold Conditions

Is the USDJPY likely to bounce off the lows?

USDJPY Oversold
USDJPY Oversold Getty Images

The USDJPY is currently oversold on most timeframes.  The patterns are very similar to the video from yesterday on the Euro pairs. Beginning with the 240-minute chart, the stochastics is showing an oversold status, indicating a potential retracement.

USDJPY Oversold 240 Minute ChartThen if we go down in time to a 60-minute chart, both the stochastics and ADX are oversold, as well and unless sellers come in very strong within the next half hour, there is also volume divergence on the lows because as price made new lows the volume that is below zero is decreasing. 

USDJPY 60 minute chart oversoldThese patterns also hold true on the 30-minute chart.  Again, the stochastics is oversold with trend divergence on the lows, the ADX is oversold and selling volume is decreasing.  Again, confirming that a potential retracement is likely to occur today on the USDJPY.

USDJPY 30 minute chartThe next timeframe to look at would be the 15-minute chart.  On the 15-minute chart, the distance from one low to the next is minimal and, again, the stochastics is oversold, with trend divergence, and the selling volume is decreasing.
USDJPY 15 minute chartThe technical analysis on all five timeframes are indicating that the USDJPY will potentially retrace but where will price likely go?  The first area of resistance will be on the 15-minute ATR at 111.50.  Price will potentially break through this area but will likely test to ensure support has formed there, as well.  (Whenever resistance is broken, it will likely serve as support for a further upward move.)  The next area of resistance will be the ATR on the 30-minute timeframe at 111.78.  Again, if price manages to break through the 111.78 area, then a test for support is also likely to occur before it moves to the next area of resistance -- the 60-minute ATR at 112.00.  If the 60-minute ATR fails to offer resistance than the next likely area of resistance will be the 240-minute ATR, which is currently at 112.75. 

Additionally, if buyers fail to come in strong (increasing buying volume on the highs), then traders could see this as a likely profit-taking move only and potentially re-enter a short position.

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