USDCAD Hidden Divergence

USDCAD Hidden Divergence

Hidden Divergence has formed on the 240 minute chart indicating a potential downward movement

USDCAD Hidden Divergence
USDCAD Hidden Divergence Getty Images

The USDCAD 240-minute chart shows that price is again testing the ATR and a potential reversal bar has formed.  Price is making lower highs but the Stochastics is making higher highs, indicating a lot of momentum was put into the move but price failed to go higher (identified by the yellow lines on the chart below).  Additionally, the three bars enclosed within the yellow circle show that a three-bar reversal formed but it is considered a ghost pivot because the third bar in the series did not close below the low of the middle bar, which may explain why price is again testing for resistance. 

USDCAD Hidden DivergenceGoing down in time to the 60 minute chart, a congestion area has formed identified with the red plus sign and the white dot.  With only twenty-six minutes remaining, a reversal pivot to the downside is forming at an area of resistance. 

USDCAD congestion areaIf the resistance area holds then, price may break through the support area at 1.2890, followed by an area of support on the daily chart at 1.2864. If price manages to clear both support areas, then move downward movement may occur as the next support area is on the weekly chart at 1.2400 (with the Stochastics already being overbought on the weekly helping to push it down).

However, the CAD does have multiple reports being released at 8:30 am New York time this morning.  The two high volatile reports are CPI m/m and Core Retail Sales m/m followed by several lower impact reports (Common CPI y/y, Median CPI y/y, Retail Sales m/m, Trimmed CPI y/y and Core CPI m/m).  If these reports are lower than anticipated, then the market could actually go up immediately after the reports.  Currently, the expectation is mixed -- the CPI m/m is expected to come in lower (possible downward movement) and the Core Retail Sales m/m is expected to come in higher.

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