Bitcoin has taken a round trip over the last month as it fell sharply starting on August 7th, and has erased almost all the gains month to date. Notably, other altcoins fell farther and faster, as we continue to see rotation from other altcoin into BTC, especially in times of market stress.
chart courtesy of FinViz
The 24 hour period when bitcoin fell was marked by shockingly thin volume in certain periods, which were populated with sell orders across major crypto exchanges and not much else. Key support levels held briefly, but bitcoin ultimately fell sharply in a series of step moves as bids simply vanished.
Over the last 30 days, we have seen similar pockets of thin volume, in both up and down markets, and we expect that trend to persist. This could allow bitcoin to work its way through consolidation as it works back higher, and then shoot quickly higher through key levels, as seen in the 30 day volume profile chart.
We remain constructive on bitcoin with a year-end call of 10,300. The next key level above us is 6751. The possibility exists for that level to fall in the enxt seven days. When that level is breeched, it could enable be a rather quick trip up to the low 7k range, if historical patterns of trading volums persist.
For us this week, based on our simulation model, we a tight range between 6,126 and 6560. The results of our model, whch is designed to provide an outlook of the possible maximum value are represented by the histogram below. Our model runs thousands of simulation of the crypto market a week at a time, and then we place the results in a histogram to show price levels that received the most results per the model. The levels with the longest bars are deemed more probable as a maximum value by our simulation model.
Over the next 30 days, we see the potential for a level 7200. One possibel scenario is that an upward channel develops with the low 8k range serving as channel apex, with the recently touched levels in the low 6k's serving as support.
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