The USDCAD has been moving down since the beginning of the year. Today, at 10:00 am New York time, the Bank of Canada will announce the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report, Rate Statement, and Overnight Rate followed by a Press Conference at 10:15 am New York time. The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain the current rate at 1.75%. In December, they also maintained their bank rate due to the drastic fall on Crude. Today traders will be watching the press conference to decipher if changes in the Bank of Canada monetary policy are immient.
The daily chart shows that the USDCAD is likely oversold using the Stochastics. Additionally, there is a potential support area at 1.3160. Although the current bar is forming as a bearish bar, the Bank of Canada rate annoncement could change that.
Going down in time to the 240 minute chart, the USDCAD is starting to form a bullish candlestick pattern and the Stochastics, which was indicating a potential oversold market is now beginning to turn upwards. However, there is overhead resistance at 1.3300, 1.3350, and 1.3400. Any of these resistance areas could provide the resistance needed to push price back down.
However, the Bank of Canada is not the only announcement that may affect the currency today. The FOMC Meeting Minutes from late December will be released at 2:00 pm New York time, as well. Traders will be looking for clues as to whether the FOMC will raise interest rates in March 2019. The current probabilities for a March rate increase according to the CME FedWatch Tool is 10.8% while 89.2% believe no change will occur. Today's release of the minutes may change those projections and could impact the USDCAD, as well. The currency could see a dramatic increase after the Bank of Canada announcement followed by a fall after the FOMC minutes or vice versa.