T+2 Market Outlook

T+2 Market Outlook

The headline situation has become more positive in the last 24 hours. Will this help U.S. stocks rally going into the end of the month?

T+2 Market Outlook
T+2 Market Outlook StockSnap

Overnight, In Asia 6 out of 12 stock markets closed lower with the Nikkei down 1.61%, and in Europe today, 10 out of 13 stock markets are currently trading higher. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 futures in the U.S. are trading unchanged as of 7:15 EST.

There are 72 corporate earnings scheduled today, all from smaller, lesser-known companies, but the economic calendar is busy, featuring GDP before the New York open and then Pending Home Sales later in the morning.

Brexit headlines have dominated the European session. British Prime Minister May has offered to resign to break gridlock, and optimism for a “soft Brexit” has elevated. Meanwhile, in China, officials are suggesting that the economic numbers for March should be better than expected, and other headlines suggest that groundbreaking measures have been achieved in trade talks between China and the U.S.

Yesterday, U.S. stock markets traded lower on the open with the ESM19 trading down to a low of 2791.75, a support area from Monday that we previously identified.  The index has since tried and failed to rally, but is still holding the low from yesterday.

Today is T+2 for U.S. stock for the end of the quarter, which means that in order for money to be settled from equity transactions by the first business day of the new quarter, positions must be liquidated.  This results in an end-of-the-quarter rebalancing both today and tomorrow.

We don’t have a good feel for this end-of-quarter trade. The selloff to close March could have been what we saw beginning last Friday through Monday of this week. Technically speaking, we are watching for a break of 2790 on the ES, which would open the door for 2780 and perhaps 2755. Otherwise, 2833 would be our upside objective.


Today’s Economic Calendar:

  • 52-Week Bill Settlement
  • Randal Quarles Speaks 7:15 AM ET
  • GDP 8:30 AM ET
  • Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
  • Corporate Profits 8:30 AM ET
  • Richard Clarida Speaks 9:30 AM ET
  • Michele Bowman Speaks 10:00 AM ET
  • Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
  • Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index 11:00 AM ET
  • 3-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET
  • 6-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET
  • Raphael Bostic Speaks 11:30 AM ET
  • 4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET
  • 8-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET
  • 7-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET
  • John Williams Speaks 1:15 PM ET
  • John Williams Speaks 2:30 PM ET
  • Farm Prices 3:00 PM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply 4:30 PM ET
  • James Bullard Speaks 6:20 PM ET

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